Credit Research

Jide Balogun

Written credit analysis on listed and private issuers, covering capital structure, cash generation and downside. Independent work, published under my own name.

Notes

Corporate Consumer & retail November 2026 13 pp.

Dr. Martens plc

LSE: DOCS · FY26, 52 weeks ended 29 March 2026

A credit that improved on every covenant metric while selling fewer boots. Lend to the 2028 maturity, not beyond. Reported leverage of 1.4 times is struck on an earnings figure about £19m larger than headline EBITDA, and the reconciliation is worked through. Half the revenue decline is translation, the Americas grew underlying, and the risk has moved to Europe, where the own channel is falling near ten per cent and the disclosure needed to judge it is withheld. Includes a cash bridge showing the business converted £26.7m rather than the £141.1m headline, and downside scenarios run to the covenant.

Read the note (PDF, 13 pp.)
Real estate Hospitality October 2026

PPHE Hotel Group

LSE: PPH · Owner-operator, European hotel portfolio

Asset-backed credit analysis of a hotel owner-operator, covering the relationship between property values, operating cash flow and debt service, and what a lender is actually secured on when the operating business and the real estate sit in the same group.

Method

Every figure in these notes is traceable. Numbers taken from a filing are marked as reported; anything I have calculated is identified as mine, with the derivation shown rather than asserted. Each note carries a basis of preparation setting out what was used, what was assumed and what I could not verify.

Key derivations are rebuilt by more than one independent route before publication, and drafts are checked against the primary filings by a reviewer who has not seen the reasoning. Where a conclusion did not survive that check, the note says so rather than quietly softening. Open questions are stated as questions for management, not dressed up as findings.

I hold no position in any security discussed, and have had no contact with any company covered.

Contact

These notes are analytical exercises written to demonstrate credit work. They are not investment research, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and not advice of any kind. Figures are drawn from published company statements and may be superseded by later disclosure.